NCAA10 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Michigan State Spartans37:38Full timeIllinois Fighting Illini

0–10 7–10 10–3 14–8

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

Michigan State Spartans v Illinois Fighting Illini, NCAA, played on 10 October 2026. It finished Michigan State Spartans 37–38 Illinois Fighting Illini. At kick-off the market had Illinois Fighting Illini as favourite at 1.81 (about 51% once the margin is removed). Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Total pointsLine 48.5Opening 51.5 → 48.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over✓	1.70	1.88	1.92	1.70	▲ +10.6%	53.2%-5.6 pp
Under	2.05	1.84	2.05	1.80	▼ -10.3%	54.3%+5.6 pp

Point spreadLine 3margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Michigan State Spartans +3✓	1.91	1.91	1.91	1.91	–	52.3%
Illinois Fighting Illini -3	1.81	1.81	1.81	1.81	–	55.2%

Match statistics

215Pass completions yards282
126Rush yards127

Odds movement

Market summary

In the total points market, Over opened at 1.70 and closed 1.88. The implied probability decreased from 58.8% to 53.2%. Under moved from 2.05 to 1.84 (48.7% → 54.3%).

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