NBL4 October 2026, 04:00 UTC

SE Melbourne Phoenix113:96Full timeIllawarra Hawks

23–23 36–18 26–32 28–23

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

59%+4

SE Melbourne Phoenix

41%−4

Illawarra Hawks

SE Melbourne Phoenix v Illawarra Hawks, NBL, played on 4 October 2026. It finished SE Melbourne Phoenix 113–96 Illawarra Hawks. At kick-off the market had SE Melbourne Phoenix as favourite at 1.56 (about 59% once the margin is removed). That price shortened from 1.69 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Winnermargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
SE Melbourne Phoenix✓	1.69	1.56	1.69	1.50	▼ -7.2%	63.9%+4.6 pp
Illawarra Hawks	2.08	2.30	2.45	2.08	▲ +10.6%	43.5%-4.6 pp

Total pointsLine 192.5Opening 191.5 → 192.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over✓	1.95	1.66	1.95	1.66	▼ -14.8%	60.2%+8.9 pp
Under	1.78	2.11	2.11	1.78	▲ +18.8%	47.3%-8.9 pp

Point handicapLine -2.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
SE Melbourne Phoenix -2.5✓	1.86	1.73	1.86	1.68	▼ -7.0%	57.8%+4.0 pp
Illawarra Hawks +2.5	1.86	2.01	2.08	1.86	▲ +8.2%	49.7%-4.1 pp

Match statistics

163 points made5

Odds movement

Market summary

In the winner market, SE Melbourne Phoenix opened at 1.69 and closed 1.56. The implied probability increased from 59.3% to 63.9%. Illawarra Hawks moved from 2.08 to 2.30 (48.1% → 43.5%).

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total 3-pointers	22.5	1.74 / 1.74	2.00 / 2.00	–	–

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