Super League, Women4 October 2026, 15:30 UTC

Manchester City WFC (w)4:2Full timeArsenal (w)

1–1 3–1

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

41%+6

Manchester City WFC (w)

25%−1

Draw

33%−5

Arsenal (w)

Manchester City WFC (w) v Arsenal (w), Super League, Women, played on 4 October 2026. It finished Manchester City WFC (w) 4–2 Arsenal (w). At kick-off the market had Manchester City WFC (w) as favourite at 2.27 (about 41% once the margin is removed). That price shortened from 2.65 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Match resultmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Manchester City WFC (w)✓	2.65	2.27	2.67	2.27	▼ -14.7%	44.2%+6.5 pp
Draw	3.57	3.65	3.65	3.43	▲ +2.2%	27.4%-0.6 pp
Arsenal (w)	2.39	2.78	2.79	2.39	▲ +16.3%	36.0%-5.9 pp

Total goalsLine 2.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over✓	1.66	1.61	1.72	1.61	▼ -3.1%	62.2%+1.9 pp
Under	2.12	2.21	2.21	2.03	▲ +4.3%	45.3%-2.0 pp

Both teams to scoremargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Yes✓	1.56	1.51	1.61	1.51	▼ -3.1%	66.1%+2.0 pp
No	2.30	2.42	2.42	2.21	▲ +5.0%	41.3%-2.1 pp

Asian handicapLine 0margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Manchester City WFC (w) 0✓	1.92	1.74	1.92	1.74	▼ -9.8%	57.6%+5.7 pp
Arsenal (w) 0	1.80	2.01	2.01	1.80	▲ +11.4%	49.9%-5.7 pp

Double chance

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Home or Draw✓	1.52	1.40	1.52	1.40	▼ -7.7%	71.4%+5.5 pp
Home or Away✓	1.26	1.25	1.28	1.25	▼ -1.0%	80.3%+0.8 pp
Draw or Away	1.44	1.58	1.58	1.44	▲ +10.0%	63.4%-6.3 pp

Draw no betmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Manchester City WFC (w)✓	1.97	1.80	1.97	1.80	▼ -8.8%	55.5%+4.9 pp
Arsenal (w)	1.76	1.92	1.92	1.76	▲ +9.4%	52.0%-4.9 pp

Timeline

42'⚽goal0:1
45'⚽goal1:1
49'⚽goal1:2
62'⚽goal2:2
71'⚽goal3:2
81'▮yellow card3:2
83'⚽goal4:2

Match statistics

0Yellow cards1
0Player:ab:84905:last goal0
0Second yellow cards0

Odds movement

Market summary

In the match result market, Manchester City WFC (w) opened at 2.65 and closed 2.27. The implied probability increased from 37.7% to 44.2%. Arsenal (w) moved from 2.39 to 2.78 (41.9% → 36%).

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total corners (1st half)	4.5	1.91 / 1.91	1.81 / 1.81	–	–
Total corners	9.5	1.91 / 1.91	1.81 / 1.81	–	–

Markets (33)

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