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UEFA Nations League A

Italy3:1Full timeTurkiye

1–0 2–1

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.
62%−1
Italy
22%+1
Draw
16%−1
Turkiye

Italy v Turkiye, UEFA Nations League A, played on 5 October 2026. It finished Italy 3–1 Turkiye. At kick-off the market had Italy as favourite at 1.49 (about 62% once the margin is removed). That price drifted from 1.48 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds
1
2.10
▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Match resultmargin 7.5%
SelectionOpeningClosingMovement
Italy✓1.481.49▲ +0.8%
Draw4.574.29▼ -6.1%
Turkiye5.565.85▲ +5.2%
Total goalsLine 3margin 7.5%
SelectionOpeningClosingMovement
Over✓1.771.97▲ +11.2%
Under1.971.77▼ -10.1%
Both teams to scoremargin 7.5%
SelectionOpeningClosingMovement
Yes✓1.611.66▲ +3.2%
No2.202.11▼ -4.0%
Asian handicapLine -1.25margin 7.5%
SelectionOpeningClosingMovement
Italy -1.25✓1.982.11▲ +7.0%
Turkiye +1.251.761.66▼ -5.5%
Double chance
SelectionOpeningClosingMovement
Home or Draw✓1.111.11▼ -0.2%
Home or Away✓1.181.18▲ +0.6%
Draw or Away2.492.46▼ -1.1%
Draw no betmargin 7.5%
SelectionOpeningClosingMovement
Italy✓1.181.17▼ -0.7%
Turkiye4.374.48▲ +2.5%

Timeline

  1. 41'▮yellow card1:0
  2. 46'▮yellow card1:0
  3. 54'▮yellow card1:0
  4. 60'⚽goal1:1
  5. 64'⚽goal2:1
  6. 80'▮yellow card2:1
  7. 86'⚽goal3:1

Match statistics

  • 0Medical treatment received on the pitch0
  • 0Second yellow cards0

Odds movement

Statistical markets vs actual result

MarketLineOver opening / closingUnder opening / closingActualResult
Total cards (1st half)1.52.37 / 2.331.53 / 1.55––
Total offsides (1st half)1.52.04 / 1.971.71 / 1.76––
Total corners (1st half)4.51.73 / 1.872.01 / 1.85––
Total shots on target (1st half)4.52.00 / 1.911.74 / 1.81––
Total goal kicks (1st half)7.52.00 / 2.001.74 / 1.74––
Total fouls (1st half)11.51.81 / 1.531.91 / 2.37––
Total throw-ins (1st half)17.52.01 / 1.911.73 / 1.81––
Total cards3.51.74 / 1.682.00 / 2.08––
Total offsides3.5(2.5)2.23 / 2.231.60 / 1.60––
Total corners9.5(10.5)1.61 / 1.862.21 / 1.86––
Total shots on target10.5(9.5)2.11 / 1.951.66 / 1.78––
Total goal kicks15.51.86 / 1.861.86 / 1.86––
Total fouls26.5(24.5)1.86 / 1.861.86 / 1.86––
Total shots29.5(27.5)1.86 / 1.861.86 / 1.86––
Total throw-ins34.5(33.5)2.00 / 1.861.74 / 1.86––

Markets (894)

Head to head (1)

1Italy0Draws0Turkiye
  • 28 Sept
    Full time
    UEFA Nations League A
    Turkiye1Italy4
    1
    2.84
    ▲2.62
    X
    3.37
    ▲3.35
    2
    2.35
    ▼2.53

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