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ChessArnaldi, Matteo2:1Full timeSakamoto, Rei
2–6 6–4 6–4
Arnaldi, Matteo v Sakamoto, Rei, ATP 500 Tokyo, Japan, played on 30 September 2026. It finished Arnaldi, Matteo 2–1 Sakamoto, Rei. At kick-off the market had Sakamoto, Rei as favourite at 1.64 (about 57% once the margin is removed). That price shortened from 1.76 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.
How to read these odds
1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.
The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.
A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.
Opening vs closing odds
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaldi, Matteo✓ | 1.97 | 2.16 | ▲ +9.2% | |||
| Sakamoto, Rei | 1.76 | 1.64 | ▼ -7.0% |
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over✓ | 1.76 | 1.83 | ▲ +3.7% | |||
| Under | 1.97 | 1.89 | ▼ -3.9% |
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnaldi, Matteo +1.25✓ | 1.76 | 1.97 | ▲ +11.4% | |||
| Sakamoto, Rei -1.25 | 1.97 | 1.76 | ▼ -10.3% |
Match statistics
- 4Double faults1
- 0Gamescore0
Odds movement
Market summary
In the winner market, Arnaldi, Matteo opened at 1.97 and closed 2.16. The implied probability decreased from 50.7% to 46.4%. Sakamoto, Rei moved from 1.76 to 1.64 (56.9% → 61.1%). The total double faults line was 4.5; the actual total was 5, settling over.
Statistical markets vs actual result
| Market | Line | Over opening / closing | Under opening / closing | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total double faults | 4.5 | 1.76 / 1.76 | 1.97 / 1.97 | 5 | Over |
| Total aces | 15.5(16.5) | 1.81 / 1.81 | 1.91 / 1.91 | – | – |
Markets (85)
Related matches
- 30 Sept01:00