Primera Nacional17 October 2026, 00:00 UTC

Atletico de Rafaela1:0Full timeQuilmes AC

1–0 0–0

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

45%+11

Atletico de Rafaela

32%

Draw

23%−11

Quilmes AC

Atletico de Rafaela v Quilmes AC, Primera Nacional, played on 17 October 2026. It finished Atletico de Rafaela 1–0 Quilmes AC. At kick-off the market had Atletico de Rafaela as favourite at 2.06 (about 45% once the margin is removed). That price shortened from 2.74 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Match resultmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Atletico de Rafaela✓	2.74	2.06	2.74	2.06	▼ -24.8%	48.5%+12.0 pp
Draw	2.90	2.94	3.00	2.88	▲ +1.2%	34.1%-0.4 pp
Quilmes AC	2.74	4.02	4.02	2.74	▲ +46.7%	24.9%-11.6 pp

Total goalsLine 1.75Opening 2 → 1.75margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over	1.74	1.74	1.74	1.73	–	57.5%
Under✓	2.00	2.00	2.00	2.00	–	50.0%

Both teams to scoremargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Yes	2.16	2.31	2.31	2.16	▲ +6.8%	43.3%-3.0 pp
No✓	1.63	1.56	1.63	1.56	▼ -4.6%	64.2%+3.0 pp

Asian handicapLine -0.25Opening -1 → -0.25margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Atletico de Rafaela -0.25✓	1.95	1.66	1.95	1.66	▼ -14.8%	60.2%+8.9 pp
Quilmes AC +0.25	1.78	2.11	2.11	1.78	▲ +18.8%	47.3%-8.9 pp

Double chance

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Home or Draw✓	1.41	1.21	1.41	1.21	▼ -14.3%	82.9%+11.9 pp
Home or Away✓	1.37	1.36	1.38	1.34	▼ -0.4%	73.4%+0.3 pp
Draw or Away	1.41	1.70	1.70	1.41	▲ +20.8%	58.8%-12.2 pp

Draw no betmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Atletico de Rafaela✓	1.86	1.70	1.86	1.70	▼ -8.7%	58.9%+5.1 pp
Quilmes AC	1.86	2.06	2.06	1.86	▲ +10.5%	48.7%-5.1 pp

Timeline

39'▮yellow card1:0
44'▮yellow card1:0
50'▮red card1:0
53'⇄substitution1:0
61'⇄substitution1:0
63'▮yellow card1:0
69'▮yellow card1:0
75'▮yellow card1:0
80'▮red card1:0
83'⇄substitution1:0
90'⇄substitution1:0

Match statistics

44Dangerous attacks65
0Own goals0
0Second yellow cards0

Odds movement

Market summary

In the match result market, Atletico de Rafaela opened at 2.74 and closed 2.06. The implied probability increased from 36.5% to 48.5%. Quilmes AC moved from 2.74 to 4.02 (36.5% → 24.9%).

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total corners (1st half)	4.5	2.18 / 2.26	1.62 / 1.59	–	–
Total corners	8.5	1.83 / 1.88	1.89 / 1.84	–	–

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