HNL11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb0:1Full timeNK Varazdin

0–1 0–0

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

29%+3

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

28%+1

Draw

43%−4

NK Varazdin

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb v NK Varazdin, HNL, played on 11 October 2026. It finished NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 NK Varazdin. At kick-off the market had NK Varazdin as favourite at 2.16 (about 43% once the margin is removed). That price drifted from 1.97 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Match resultmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb	3.58	3.17	3.58	2.88	▼ -11.3%	31.5%+3.6 pp
Draw	3.47	3.37	3.57	3.37	▼ -3.0%	29.7%+0.9 pp
NK Varazdin✓	1.97	2.16	2.29	1.97	▲ +9.6%	46.3%-4.4 pp

Total goalsLine 2.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over	1.81	1.79	1.84	1.79	▼ -1.2%	55.9%+0.7 pp
Under✓	1.91	1.94	1.94	1.89	▲ +1.3%	51.6%-0.7 pp

Both teams to scoremargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Yes	1.71	1.66	1.71	1.62	▼ -3.0%	60.2%+1.8 pp
No✓	2.04	2.12	2.19	2.04	▲ +3.8%	47.2%-1.8 pp

Asian handicapLine 0.25Opening 0 → 0.25margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb +0.25	1.88	2.00	2.00	1.88	▲ +6.3%	50.0%-3.2 pp
NK Varazdin -0.25✓	1.84	1.74	1.84	1.74	▼ -5.5%	57.5%+3.2 pp

Double chance

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Home or Draw	1.76	1.63	1.76	1.55	▼ -7.3%	61.3%+4.5 pp
Home or Away✓	1.27	1.29	1.29	1.26	▲ +1.3%	77.8%-1.0 pp
Draw or Away✓	1.26	1.32	1.38	1.26	▲ +4.5%	76.0%-3.4 pp

Timeline

39'⚽goal0:1
45'▮yellow card0:1

Match statistics

4Shots9
0Own goals0
0Second yellow cards0

Odds movement

Market summary

In the match result market, NK Varazdin opened at 1.97 and closed 2.16. The implied probability decreased from 50.7% to 46.3%. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb moved from 3.58 to 3.17 (28% → 31.5%).

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total corners (1st half)	4.5	1.89 / 1.91	1.83 / 1.81	–	–
Total corners	9.5	1.91 / 1.91	1.81 / 1.81	–	–

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