Premier League17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Newcastle United0:1Full timeAston Villa FC

0–1 0–0

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

44%−2

Newcastle United

25%

Draw

31%+2

Aston Villa FC

Newcastle United v Aston Villa FC, Premier League, played on 17 October 2026. It finished Newcastle United 0–1 Aston Villa FC. At kick-off the market had Newcastle United as favourite at 2.12 (about 44% once the margin is removed). That price drifted from 2.04 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Match resultmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Newcastle United	2.04	2.12	2.33	2.03	▲ +4.1%	47.2%-1.9 pp
Draw	3.69	3.66	3.70	3.54	▼ -0.6%	27.3%+0.2 pp
Aston Villa FC✓	3.20	3.03	3.23	2.76	▼ -5.4%	33.0%+1.8 pp

Total goalsLine 3margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over	1.94	1.79	1.94	1.79	▼ -7.7%	55.9%+4.3 pp
Under✓	1.79	1.94	1.94	1.79	▲ +8.3%	51.6%-4.3 pp

Both teams to scoremargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Yes	1.52	1.47	1.52	1.47	▼ -3.5%	68.0%+2.4 pp
No✓	2.39	2.53	2.53	2.39	▲ +6.0%	39.5%-2.4 pp

Asian handicapLine -0.25margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Newcastle United -0.25	1.74	1.87	1.87	1.73	▲ +7.6%	53.4%-4.1 pp
Aston Villa FC +0.25✓	2.00	1.85	2.01	1.85	▼ -7.5%	54.1%+4.0 pp

Double chance

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Home or Draw	1.31	1.34	1.40	1.24	▲ +2.8%	74.5%-2.0 pp
Home or Away✓	1.25	1.24	1.26	1.16	▼ -0.2%	80.4%+0.2 pp
Draw or Away✓	1.72	1.67	1.72	1.55	▼ -3.1%	60.1%+1.9 pp

Draw no betmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Newcastle United	1.55	1.55	1.55	1.55	–	64.7%
Aston Villa FC✓	2.33	2.33	2.33	2.33	–	42.8%

Timeline

17'▮yellow card0:0
17'▮yellow card0:0
27'▮yellow card0:0
54'▮yellow card0:1
55'⇄substitution0:1
56'⇄substitution0:1
71'⇄substitution0:1
71'⇄substitution0:1
71'⇄substitution0:1
76'⇄substitution0:1
77'▮yellow card0:1
85'▮yellow card0:1

Match statistics

72Dangerous attacks41
0Player:bg:715764:cards0
0To hit the woodwork1
0Second yellow cards0

Odds movement

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total cards (1st half)	1.5	2.23 / 2.13	1.60 / 1.65	–	–
Total offsides (1st half)	1.5	1.57 / 1.57	2.28 / 2.28	–	–
Total shots on target (1st half)	3.5	1.58 / 1.58	2.26 / 2.26	–	–
Total corners (1st half)	4.5	1.73 / 1.76	2.01 / 1.97	–	–
Total goal kicks (1st half)	7.5	1.65 / 1.65	2.13 / 2.13	–	–
Total fouls (1st half)	10.5	1.91 / 1.91	1.81 / 1.81	–	–
Total throw-ins (1st half)	16.5	1.76 / 1.76	1.97 / 1.97	9	Under
Total cards	3.5	1.62 / 1.52	2.24 / 2.39	–	–
Total offsides	4.5	2.13 / 2.13	1.66 / 1.66	–	–
Total shots on target	9.5	1.91 / 2.00	1.81 / 1.74	–	–
Total corners	10.5	2.04 / 2.18	1.71 / 1.62	–	–
Total goal kicks	17.5	2.00 / 2.00	1.74 / 1.74	–	–
Total fouls	21.5	1.73 / 1.73	2.01 / 2.01	–	–
Total shots	27.5	1.81 / 1.86	1.91 / 1.86	–	–
Total throw-ins	33.5	1.86 / 1.86	1.86 / 1.86	–	–

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