UEFA Champions League14 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC Shakhtar Donetsk3:1Full timeAEK Athens

1–1 2–0

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

35%−1

FC Shakhtar Donetsk

30%+3

Draw

36%−2

AEK Athens

FC Shakhtar Donetsk v AEK Athens, UEFA Champions League, played on 14 October 2026. It finished FC Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK Athens. At kick-off the market had AEK Athens as favourite at 2.62 (about 36% once the margin is removed). That price drifted from 2.48 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Match resultmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
FC Shakhtar Donetsk✓	2.62	2.67	2.67	2.53	▲ +1.6%	37.5%-0.6 pp
Draw	3.45	3.15	3.47	3.15	▼ -8.7%	31.8%+2.8 pp
AEK Athens	2.48	2.62	2.64	2.48	▲ +5.6%	38.2%-2.1 pp

Total goalsLine 2.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over✓	1.78	1.99	1.99	1.78	▲ +11.3%	50.4%-5.7 pp
Under	1.94	1.75	1.94	1.75	▼ -9.9%	57.1%+5.7 pp

Both teams to scoremargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Yes✓	1.63	1.79	1.79	1.63	▲ +9.9%	55.9%-5.5 pp
No	2.17	1.94	2.17	1.94	▼ -10.7%	51.6%+5.5 pp

Asian handicapLine 0margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
FC Shakhtar Donetsk 0✓	1.91	1.86	1.91	1.86	▼ -2.7%	53.8%+1.4 pp
AEK Athens 0	1.81	1.86	1.86	1.81	▲ +2.6%	53.8%-1.4 pp

Double chance

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Home or Draw✓	1.49	1.44	1.50	1.44	▼ -3.3%	69.3%+2.3 pp
Home or Away✓	1.27	1.32	1.32	1.27	▲ +4.3%	75.5%-3.2 pp
Draw or Away	1.44	1.42	1.46	1.42	▼ -1.4%	70.3%+1.0 pp

Timeline

17'▮yellow card0:0
33'⚽goal1:1
41'▮yellow card1:1
53'▮yellow card1:1
60'▮yellow card1:1
79'⚽goal2:1
82'⇄substitution2:1
85'⚽goal3:1
89'▮yellow card3:1

Match statistics

31Dangerous attacks37
8Shots off goal10
4Shots on goal3
0Second yellow cards0

Odds movement

Market summary

In the match result market, Draw opened at 3.45 and closed 3.15. The implied probability increased from 29% to 31.8%. AEK Athens moved from 2.48 to 2.62 (40.4% → 38.2%). The total throw-ins (1st half) line was 16.5; the actual total was 13, settling under.

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total cards (1st half)	1.5	2.42 / 2.33	1.51 / 1.55	–	–
Total offsides (1st half)	1.5	2.18 / 2.18	1.62 / 1.62	–	–
Total shots on target (1st half)	3.5	1.78 / 1.78	1.95 / 1.95	–	–
Total corners (1st half)	4.5	2.01 / 2.04	1.73 / 1.71	–	–
Total goal kicks (1st half)	7.5	2.15 / 2.15	1.64 / 1.64	–	–
Total fouls (1st half)	11.5	1.81 / 1.81	1.91 / 1.91	–	–
Total throw-ins (1st half)	16.5	1.76 / 1.76	1.97 / 1.97	13	Under
Total offsides	2.5	1.66 / 1.66	2.11 / 2.11	–	–
Total cards	3.5	1.71 / 1.68	2.04 / 2.08	–	–
Total shots on target	8.5	2.02 / 1.91	1.73 / 1.81	–	–
Total corners	9.5	2.08 / 2.11	1.68 / 1.66	–	–
Total goal kicks	14.5	1.71 / 1.71	2.04 / 2.04	–	–
Total shots	23.5	1.91 / 1.91	1.81 / 1.81	–	–
Total fouls	24.5	1.86 / 1.86	1.86 / 1.86	–	–
Total throw-ins	33.5	1.86 / 1.86	1.86 / 1.86	–	–

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