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ChessEstonia1:0Full timeLuxembourg
1–0 0–0
Estonia v Luxembourg, UEFA Nations League C, played on 3 October 2026. It finished Estonia 1–0 Luxembourg. At kick-off the market had Estonia as favourite at 2.73 (about 34% once the margin is removed). That price drifted from 2.64 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.
How to read these odds
1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.
The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.
A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.
Opening vs closing odds
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia✓ | 2.64 | 2.73 | ▲ +3.3% | |||
| Draw | 3.15 | 2.87 | ▼ -8.8% | |||
| Luxembourg | 2.64 | 2.78 | ▲ +5.2% |
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 1.86 | 2.21 | ▲ +18.8% | |||
| Under✓ | 1.86 | 1.61 | ▼ -13.6% |
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.84 | 2.16 | ▲ +17.3% | |||
| No✓ | 1.88 | 1.63 | ▼ -13.1% |
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia +0.25✓ | 1.60 | 1.68 | ▲ +5.2% | |||
| Luxembourg -0.25 | 2.23 | 2.08 | ▼ -6.4% |
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home or Draw✓ | 1.44 | 1.39 | ▼ -3.0% | |||
| Home or Away✓ | 1.32 | 1.37 | ▲ +3.8% | |||
| Draw or Away | 1.44 | 1.42 | ▼ -0.9% |
| Selection | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Movement | Implied prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia✓ | 1.87 | 1.87 | – | |||
| Luxembourg | 1.85 | 1.85 | – |
Timeline
- 28'▮yellow card1:0
- 67'▮yellow card1:0
- 72'▮yellow card1:0
- 77'▮yellow card1:0
- 82'▮yellow card1:0
- 84'▮yellow card1:0
- 86'▮yellow card1:0
- 87'▮yellow card1:0
Match statistics
- 7Corners3
- 0Medical treatment received on the pitch0
- 0Player:ab:151681:red cards0
- 0To hit the woodwork0
- 0Second yellow cards0
Odds movement
Market summary
In the match result market, Draw opened at 3.15 and closed 2.87. The implied probability increased from 31.7% to 34.8%. The total corners (1st half) line was 4.5; the actual total was 5, settling over.
Statistical markets vs actual result
| Market | Line | Over opening / closing | Under opening / closing | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total cards (1st half) | 1.5 | 2.01 / 2.01 | 1.73 / 1.73 | – | – |
| Total offsides (1st half) | 1.5 | 2.18 / 2.18 | 1.62 / 1.62 | – | – |
| Total shots on target (1st half) | 3.5 | 2.01 / 2.01 | 1.73 / 1.73 | – | – |
| Total corners (1st half) | 4.5 | 2.26 / 2.39 | 1.58 / 1.52 | 5 | Over |
| Total goal kicks (1st half) | 7.5 | 2.00 / 2.00 | 1.74 / 1.74 | – | – |
| Total fouls (1st half) | 13.5 | 1.86 / 2.04 | 1.86 / 1.71 | 12 | Under |
| Total throw-ins (1st half) | 21.5 | 1.83 / 1.64 | 1.89 / 2.15 | – | – |
| Total offsides | 2.5 | 1.66 / 1.66 | 2.11 / 2.11 | – | – |
| Total cards | 4.5 | 1.76 / 2.00 | 1.97 / 1.74 | – | – |
| Total shots on target | 7.5 | 1.76 / 1.76 | 1.97 / 1.97 | – | – |
| Total corners | 8.5 | 1.86 / 2.04 | 1.86 / 1.71 | 10 | Over |
| Total goal kicks | 15.5 | 1.86 / 1.86 | 1.86 / 1.86 | – | – |
| Total shots | 22.5 | 1.73 / 1.73 | 2.01 / 2.01 | – | – |
| Total fouls | 28.5 | 1.86 / 2.35 | 1.86 / 1.54 | – | – |
| Total throw-ins | 43.5(42.5) | 1.97 / 1.76 | 1.76 / 1.97 | – | – |