ATP 250 Chengdu, China28 September 2026, 09:00 UTC

Basilashvili, Nikoloz1:2Full timeDavidovich Fokina, Alejandro

6–4 4–6 3–6

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

34%−5

Basilashvili, Nikoloz

66%+5

Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro

Basilashvili, Nikoloz v Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro, ATP 250 Chengdu, China, played on 28 September 2026. It finished Basilashvili, Nikoloz 1–2 Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro. At kick-off the market had Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro as favourite at 1.41 (about 66% once the margin is removed). That price shortened from 1.53 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Winnermargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Basilashvili, Nikoloz	2.38	2.75	3.27	2.38	▲ +15.6%	36.3%-5.7 pp
Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro✓	1.53	1.41	1.53	1.30	▼ -8.0%	71.2%+5.7 pp

Total gamesLine 22.25Opening 22.5 → 22.25margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over	1.91	1.88	1.91	1.88	▼ -1.6%	53.2%+0.9 pp
Under	1.81	1.84	1.84	1.81	▲ +1.6%	54.3%-0.9 pp

Game handicapLine 3.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Basilashvili, Nikoloz +3.5	1.69	1.82	1.94	1.69	▲ +7.3%	55.0%-4.0 pp
Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro -3.5	2.06	1.91	2.06	1.79	▼ -7.7%	52.5%+4.0 pp

Match statistics

1Double faults3
0Gamescore0

Odds movement

Market summary

In the winner market, Basilashvili, Nikoloz opened at 2.38 and closed 2.75. The implied probability decreased from 42% to 36.3%. Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro moved from 1.53 to 1.41 (65.5% → 71.2%). The total double faults line was 3.5; the actual total was 4, settling over.

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total double faults	3.5	1.68 / 1.68	2.08 / 2.08	4	Over
Total aces	15.5(14.5)	1.86 / 1.86	1.86 / 1.86	–	–

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