ATP 250 Chengdu, China27 September 2026, 08:30 UTC

Mannarino, Adrian1:2Full timeShapovalov, Denis

7–6 3–6 2–6

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

28%−4

Mannarino, Adrian

72%+4

Shapovalov, Denis

Mannarino, Adrian v Shapovalov, Denis, ATP 250 Chengdu, China, played on 27 September 2026. It finished Mannarino, Adrian 1–2 Shapovalov, Denis. At kick-off the market had Shapovalov, Denis as favourite at 1.29 (about 72% once the margin is removed). That price shortened from 1.37 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Winnermargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Mannarino, Adrian	2.89	3.33	3.33	2.89	▲ +15.1%	30.1%-4.5 pp
Shapovalov, Denis✓	1.37	1.29	1.37	1.29	▼ -5.9%	77.5%+4.6 pp

Total gamesLine 22.25margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over	1.91	1.97	1.97	1.91	▲ +2.9%	50.8%-1.5 pp
Under	1.81	1.76	1.81	1.76	▼ -2.6%	56.7%+1.5 pp

Game handicapLine 3.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Mannarino, Adrian +3.5	1.89	2.00	2.00	1.89	▲ +6.3%	49.9%-3.1 pp
Shapovalov, Denis -3.5	1.84	1.74	1.84	1.74	▼ -5.5%	57.6%+3.1 pp

Match statistics

1Double faults9
0Breaks of serve0
24Points on own serve31

Odds movement

Market summary

In the winner market, Shapovalov, Denis opened at 1.37 and closed 1.29. The implied probability increased from 72.9% to 77.5%. Mannarino, Adrian moved from 2.89 to 3.33 (34.6% → 30.1%). The total double faults line was 6.5; the actual total was 10, settling over.

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total double faults	6.5	1.73 / 1.73	2.01 / 2.01	10	Over
Total aces	13.5	2.01 / 2.01	1.74 / 1.74	–	–

Markets (87)

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