ATP 500 Tokyo, Japan1 October 2026, 03:30 UTC

Etcheverry, Tomas Martin1:2Full timeTsitsipas, Stefanos

6–4 3–6 4–6

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

28%+5

Etcheverry, Tomas Martin

72%−5

Tsitsipas, Stefanos

Etcheverry, Tomas Martin v Tsitsipas, Stefanos, ATP 500 Tokyo, Japan, played on 1 October 2026. It finished Etcheverry, Tomas Martin 1–2 Tsitsipas, Stefanos. At kick-off the market had Tsitsipas, Stefanos as favourite at 1.29 (about 72% once the margin is removed). That price drifted from 1.20 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Winnermargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Etcheverry, Tomas Martin	4.11	3.33	4.11	3.00	▼ -19.0%	30.1%+5.7 pp
Tsitsipas, Stefanos✓	1.20	1.29	1.35	1.20	▲ +7.3%	77.5%-5.7 pp

Total gamesLine 22.75Opening 22.5 → 22.75margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over✓	1.95	1.86	1.95	1.86	▼ -4.4%	53.8%+2.4 pp
Under	1.78	1.86	1.86	1.78	▲ +4.3%	53.8%-2.3 pp

Game handicapLine 3.25Opening 3.5 → 3.25margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Etcheverry, Tomas Martin +3.25	1.97	1.91	1.97	1.81	▼ -2.8%	52.3%+1.5 pp
Tsitsipas, Stefanos -3.25	1.76	1.81	1.91	1.76	▲ +2.7%	55.2%-1.5 pp

Match statistics

1Double faults0
0Gamescore0

Odds movement

Market summary

In the winner market, Etcheverry, Tomas Martin opened at 4.11 and closed 3.33. The implied probability increased from 24.3% to 30.1%. Tsitsipas, Stefanos moved from 1.20 to 1.29 (83.1% → 77.5%). The total double faults line was 4.5; the actual total was 1, settling under.

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total double faults	4.5	2.11 / 2.11	1.66 / 1.66	1	Under
Total aces	13.5	1.81 / 1.81	1.91 / 1.91	–	–

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