Primera Division3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Liverpool Montevideo3:2Full timeCA Progreso

1–0 2–2

How the market priced it at kick-off. Ticks mark the opening split.

54%−2

Liverpool Montevideo

25%+1

Draw

20%+2

CA Progreso

Liverpool Montevideo v CA Progreso, Primera Division, played on 3 October 2026. It finished Liverpool Montevideo 3–2 CA Progreso. At kick-off the market had Liverpool Montevideo as favourite at 1.71 (about 54% once the margin is removed). That price drifted from 1.64 at opening. Below: the opening and closing odds, how the price moved, and the match statistics.

How to read these odds

2.10

▼2.35

1, X, 2 are the home win, draw and away win. The big number is the decimal price now (or at kick-off for finished matches). Below it is the opening price: ▼ red means the price shortened, ▲ green means it drifted.

The bar splits the match between home (blue), draw (grey) and away (amber) using the implied probabilities, with the bookmaker margin removed. The dark ticks show where the split stood at opening.

A decimal price of 2.00 returns twice the stake and implies a 50% chance. Implied probability is 1 divided by the price. We show prices, not tips: this is a record of how the market saw each match.

Opening vs closing odds

Match resultmargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Liverpool Montevideo✓	1.64	1.71	1.71	1.60	▲ +4.3%	58.6%-2.5 pp
Draw	3.78	3.67	3.86	3.67	▼ -3.1%	27.3%+0.8 pp
CA Progreso	5.01	4.62	5.21	4.62	▼ -7.8%	21.6%+1.7 pp

Total goalsLine 2.5margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Over✓	1.83	1.84	1.89	1.79	▲ +0.6%	54.3%-0.3 pp
Under	1.89	1.88	1.93	1.83	▼ -0.5%	53.2%+0.3 pp

Both teams to scoremargin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Yes✓	1.83	1.79	1.89	1.79	▼ -2.0%	55.8%+1.1 pp
No	1.89	1.93	1.93	1.83	▲ +2.2%	51.7%-1.1 pp

Asian handicapLine -0.75Opening -1 → -0.75margin 7.5%

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Liverpool Montevideo -0.75	1.88	1.88	1.88	1.88	–	53.2%
CA Progreso +0.75	1.84	1.84	1.84	1.84	–	54.3%

Double chance

Selection	Opening	Closing	High	Low	Movement	Implied prob.
Home or Draw✓	1.14	1.16	1.16	1.14	▲ +2.0%	85.9%-1.7 pp
Home or Away✓	1.23	1.25	1.25	1.23	▲ +1.7%	79.7%-1.4 pp
Draw or Away	2.16	2.03	2.21	2.03	▼ -6.2%	49.3%+3.0 pp

Timeline

36'⚽goal1:0
47'⚽goal1:1
81'⚽goal2:1
87'⚽goal3:1
91'⚽goal3:2

Match statistics

0Red cards0
0Own goals0
0Second yellow cards0

Odds movement

Market summary

In the match result market, Liverpool Montevideo opened at 1.64 and closed 1.71. The implied probability decreased from 61.1% to 58.6%. The total cards (1st half) line was 1.5; the actual total was 0, settling under.

Statistical markets vs actual result

Market	Line	Over opening / closing	Under opening / closing	Actual	Result
Total cards (1st half)	1.5	1.66 / 1.66	2.11 / 2.11	0	Under
Total corners (1st half)	4.5	2.04 / 1.83	1.71 / 1.89	–	–
Total cards	5.5	1.97 / 1.97	1.76 / 1.76	0	Under
Total corners	9.5(8.5)	2.11 / 1.84	1.66 / 1.88	–	–

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